A very important concept for a bettor to profit and have consistent betting, is to know how to price the event and the market in which he will invest his money. But after all, what is it to price a particular market? To price is to know how to find the fair value for the market in which you will bet, that is, to know if there is a discrepancy in the lines or odds that the bookmaker is offering.
Many gamblers who are starting find themselves wondering how to find out if there is a discrepancy in a given market or not. This question is simple and easy to understand, as it is enough to find the probability for that result to happen and see if it really is the probability that the bookmaker is offering you.
However, to find this probability, it is necessary to evaluate a series of criteria for these events, taking into account the teams' momentum, performance, field command, need for victory, technical level of the teams and absences. From a complete analysis, the bettor will be able to base himself to reach a certain probability for that event to happen.
But after all, is it important to know how to price a certain event? Yes, for sure, the most important thing for a bettor to be profitable is to know how to price the market in which he is investing. Because, through pricing you will be able to know if the bet you are placing will be EV, -EV or EV null.
EV means that according to your analysis that market has value for making an investment, the –EV is the opposite, it means that the bettor should not place a bet, because in the long run it will come out in a loss, whereas the null EV means that the bettor has reached a probability equal to that of the bookmaker. That way, your investment would have no value in the long run.
As an example, we have a game of heads or tails, which is 50% probability for each side of the coin to fall. Supposing that two friends place a bet to see who wins, so one of them offers a quote of @ 1.95 and the other of @ 2.10. For that bettor who was offered a quote of @ 2.10, in the long run he will make a profit, because as mentioned, the probability of each coing side falling is 50%, that is, we would lose 50% of the time and win another 50 %.
Another way that many bettors use to make the analysis faster, is the automatic spreadsheets to calculate the probabilities of a certain event to happen. However, this is based on formulas and numbers only, which takes away some of the more subjective criteria than the cold numbers used. Therefore, it can be a problem when setting up your odds.
The two most used formulas in these spreadsheets are the standard deviation and Poisson distribution. The latter uses a variable distribution that demonstrates the probability that an outcome will happen. Therefore, pricing is knowing how to find the probability of a particular event, knowing how to evaluate each criterion and, therefore, knowing whether that bet has value or not.
