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Tennis Trading

Tennis Trading
Tennis trading can be very profitable if we can measure the player's emotional state at any given moment.
Knowing the players in action is fundamental.
by Paulo Rebelo   |   comments 0
Wednesday, April 22 2015

As you probably know football is my specialty.
I tried a bit of everything however, and tennis was one of my more profitable experiences.

This is one of my favorite tactics back when I traded on tennis:
Search for the underdog's break.

I'll explain: When the favorite starts to serve the odds drop to values that presume that he will win that point.

That is normally the case, the favorite will win the point. When that happens though, the odds do not drop that much lower from the initial ones.

If the favorite loses that point however, in that case the odds sky rocket. The starting point of my trading was searching for that moment. It is not a foolproof technique though, you will have several small loses throughout (when the favorite indeed wins the point) and a small amount of big wins (when there are breaks) that more than make up for all those small loses.

Not everybody has the right betting profile to cope with all of these reds, even if they are small ones...

Tennis trading has a lot more to study though! 

The truly valuable trading in tennis requires much more work than the tactic of searching the favorite’s service break technique that I posted above which I posted above.

Of the little time that I spent on tennis trading I found out that it was worth it to understand the psychological moments the players are going through.

I did it because I played the sport myself and I know that tennis hinges greatly on the motivational state of the players at the time.

If a player is going through an excellent phase then his confidence goes up, the Aces come more naturally and unforced mistakes happen more rarely.

So I dedicated myself to analyzing a large number of matches of the players I was working on.

I focused on the reactions they presented when they scored and, mostly, when they failed. I also tried to analyze their ace or good serves sequences.

I traced each player's profile and basically translated tennis into probabilities.

I would do exactly the same as I do with football today. I translated the probabilities I got into odds and, if the odd on the market is higher than the one I got I'll Back, if it not, I'll Lay.

I enjoyed working on tennis greatly at the time and got very positive results, despite that I believed that there were advantages on specializing myself on a single sport and I chose football.