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The traps of a sentimentally measured bet

The traps of a sentimentally measured bet
There are serious dangers of betting based on intuition or passion.
by Academia   |   comments 0
Tuesday, August 3 2021

Passion is one of the purest and most beautiful feelings a fan can feel for their favorite club or player. It is surrounded by support, criticism, laughter, crying, faith, and it gives a precious meaning to the sport to exist. Now, when it comes to betting, letting these feelings influence the rational assessment of an event can be quite dangerous and with untold damage.

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Pondering the chance of winning a bet because it is your favorite team or because of a dream or plan you want to achieve is one of the biggest reasons for failure in the betting world. Just as the chance of winning millions on a lottery is close to zero, yet thousands of people gamble weekly, driven solely by the spectacular returns that can happen, gamblers generally put their money into odds without any study involving formulas or methods, not measuring your actual chances through the expected value (EV).

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It is often argued that we should measure the possibilities of each event occurring separately (Team A win,  draw or Team B win), knowing the expected value, whether negative or positive. This is the best way to assess whether a bookmaker is offering a loophole in which to extract an advantage. At this point, it is necessary to separate the feeling from this evaluation, as the values ​​you will apply to each of the options will determine the results.
Judging without proper calculations and methods causes the results to be underestimated or overvalued, with no weighting that matches the real probabilities. Many bettors fall by the wayside because they don't delve into this way of evaluating how betting works. They bring a whole emotional and intuitive fan charge, or simply because of the lucrative returns that event can offer, leaving them blind from the downsides that come attached to this type of simplistic analysis.
We can safely say that your way of thinking and acting will completely affect your betting results, whether for better or for worse. Knowing how to use psychology, controlling the irrational actions that your mind can create, will be the way to assess your possibilities of earnings or/and remain profitable in the long run. Our choices and actions are totally context dependent. In betting, it's the same thing, as there are many variations, and maintaining a rationality, allied to what was said throughout the text about the expected value, are triumphs that you cannot fail to use.
For recreational players, intuition is one of the main gauges for choosing which team/athlete will win a bet. For the bettors who are more experienced in this field, we know that this type of feeling is not very considered, at least separately. On the contrary, it is used to aggregate your information and competence, giving an interesting meaning to all this, since our brain is driven by various biases. Some have the effects of bringing it all to the surface, when they are face to face with an event and important decisions need to be made (on what or who to bet on).
It may sound complex and in a way it is, but it is one of the keys to succeeding if you want to follow this path in a healthy and profitable way. Methods such as the expected value, in addition to all the psychological part (when properly used) will be essential tools for making your decisions on a more professional basis. We don't want you to lose your passion, intuition and emotion, but we want you to know how to control when you're involved with gambling and money.

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