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The Expected Value and Closing Line ratio in bets

The Expected Value and Closing Line ratio in bets
In order to have bigger winnings, every bettor needs to understand how these methods work.
by Academia   |   comments 0
Friday, January 7 2022

Something absolutely normal in the life of a gambler is to calculate how much it is possible to earn on average for each bet made. We are surrounded by expectations, as through our evaluations we always expect that event to happen as planned. Using methods to do this analysis is important, and closing probabilities can help measure this expectation, so let's discuss this line and its contributions a little more.

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Along with all this analysis, we need to include the “expected value”, which through an equation gives us more information about the possibility of winning (or not) a bet. The (EV) represents on average how much we expect to win or lose if we bet that value n times on a bet with those same odds. In a game of heads or tails the probability is 50% for each side. But in a football match you will be faced with odds for the victory of team A or team B, in addition to a draw. Applying the EV formula you can find the value of that event, of the teams that are involved, calculating more accurately how much money you can bet, since the odds are decided by bookmakers, forcing you to go after these calculations to find out where and how much to bet.

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Closing odds relate to the expected value of a bet, as it is through the proportion of odds that we are used to betting. With the probabilities at the closing line time, we can have a more accurate measure of these values. It is important for us to test ourselves, because with its use we can analyze whether we would really have that expected value discovered using other means.
One of the goals of finding the closing line is for you to know your performance and become a profitable bettor. For this efficiency to be applied, it is necessary to absorb all the information and updates of a game, as the lines can move in view of these facts. Furthermore, when you acquire this information, you will have to know if the market acted with the expected efficiency and agility or correctly. That absence of a player or an extra suit, which were not at all expected, can change the course of a game and consequently with the values ​​of a bookmaker, for example. Your profit expectation must be accompanied with these changes in market behavior, as any change in a team, as mentioned above, influences the way people place two bets.
It is through it that you analyze that unregulated market, with an odd at which you find value. You plot an odd of 1.85 to work, find an event worth 1.95 pre-live and decide to take advantage. In the closing line, that is, when the match starts, this odd is in the place of 1.80. At that point you beat the closing line, you know you have a valuable and earnings read.
The right thing to have a consistent and earning career is to find value in the market, to know which direction it will take, the line of that event, so that you can win it. The closing line is the values ​​that the market is paying when the game starts, including all the feeling of the players in it. To have evolution and success, thus increasing your profit expectations, it will be necessary to have skills and good reading. This is one of the basics of knowing if you are able to evaluate the value of a bet, as this technique can contribute a lot to your long-term wins.

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